[DAILY TRADING]: EURUSD Analysis 12 August 2026 – EUR/USD Holds 1.1536 as Fed and ECB Both Turn Hawkish

Grab a coffee, because the EUR/USD chart has been doing a whole lot of nothing lately, and that is sort of the story. The Vantage EURUSD CFD trades near 1.15361 as of 12 August 2026, 11:45 (GMT+8), just under nine hours before the US releases its July Consumer Price Index at 8:30am ET, or 20:30 GMT+8.¹

The Fed and the ECB are both wrestling with the same oil-driven inflation problem, and today’s number could nudge EUR to USD out of its rut.^2,3

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: A Chart Stuck in Neutral

On the 15-minute EUR / USD chart, price pushed up to a high near 1.15495 early on 11 August, then dropped to a low near 1.15310.¹⁰ It clawed back some of that fall, twice pushing into the high 1.1540s, once around midday on 11 August and again heading into 12 August, without ever reclaiming that first high, before easing back to the 1.15361 it sits at now. Not exactly a thriller, but worth watching.

Right now, price sits at 1.15361, tucked under both the 50-period moving average (1.15445) and the 200-period moving average (1.15401) on the TradingView setup used for this analysis.¹⁰ The shorter average keeps sagging, and every retest from below has been sold so far this week. The Relative Strength Index (14) backs that up at 38.69, under its own average of 42.73 and under the neutral 50 line, having touched the 30 mark on 11 August before recovering.¹⁰ Momentum is soft, not stretched.

EUR/USD News: The Fed Sounds Less Dovish Than it Used to

The Federal Reserve held its rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on 29 July, but the 9-3 vote is the real headline. Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari and Dallas’s Lorie Logan all wanted a hike, pointing to inflation that has sat above 2% for more than five years.⁶ The Committee’s own June projections agree: nine of eighteen saw the rate ending 2026 above today’s range, in moves from a quarter-point to more than half a point.^5,9

Through most of 2025, traders leaned on Fed cuts as the easy bearish-dollar story; that story is on shakier ground now. Today’s CPI print, expected at 3.4% year-on-year against June’s 3.5%, is the next input, with Thursday’s Producer Price Index right behind it.⁴

The Other Half of The Story: An ECB Watching Oil, Not The Fed

The European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2.25% on 23 July after hiking in June for the first time since 2023, and left the door open for another move in September.⁷ Christine Lagarde kept circling back to energy prices, after renewed Middle East tension pushed oil back toward 100 US dollars a barrel.^7,8

Eurozone inflation ran at 2.9% in July, up from 2.8% in June, and Lagarde has warned prices could stay elevated into the first half of 2027.^4,7 Markets have increasingly priced in a hike at the ECB’s 10 September meeting.^7,11 Holding euros against dollars still costs an estimated 137.5 basis points a year in carry, but an ECB hike alongside a Fed hold would close that gap, one reason some desks reckon EUR/USD could work toward 1.1680 further out. None of that decides the next few hours.⁵

EUR/USD Forecast: Levels, and The Boring but Important Bit

The nearest hurdles overhead are the pair’s own moving averages: the 200-period line at 1.15401, then the 50-period line at 1.15445.¹⁰ Above that, 1.15495 has held as the ceiling for the past day and a half. On the downside, 1.15310 marked yesterday’s low and is the first level to watch if the CPI reaction turns lower.¹⁰ Zoom out and the broader range since March runs from the twelve-month low near 1.1354 toward 1.1680.⁵ If you are cross-checking EUR/USD trading signals elsewhere, these are the same zones most desks are watching, so this EUR/USD price forecast is a shared reference point, not a prediction.

CFDs on EUR/USD carry the risk of losses that can exceed a deposit when markets move fast around data like today’s CPI release. A Stop Loss can help limit losses to a planned size around those levels, though it will not save you from slippage during a genuine news spike.

Leverage cuts both ways, and it cuts faster heading into a high-impact release. Position sizing relative to account equity, not to how big you think the move will be, is worth a second look before the CPI print lands this afternoon.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

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References

[1] “CPI Home – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics” https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ Accessed on 12 August 2026.

[2] “Forex Today: US Dollar on pause ahead of US CPI – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-on-pause-ahead-of-us-cpi-202608111818 Accessed on 12 August 2026.

[3] “Euro remains subdued against US Dollar ahead of US CPI – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-treads-water-against-us-dollar-as-traders-await-us-cpi-202608111053 Accessed on 12 August 2026.

[4] “EUR/USD Forecast: US Dollar selling spiral accelerates ahead of key CPI update – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-us-inflation-and-war-doldrums-to-keep-shaping-markets-mood-202608071513 Accessed on 12 August 2026.

[5] “EUR/USD Recovery Hinges on US CPI and the 1.1680 Resistance Level – Investing.com” https://www.investing.com/analysis/eurusd-recovery-hinges-on-us-cpi-and-the-11680-resistance-level-200685642 Accessed on 12 August 2026.

[6] “Fed rate decision July 2026: Divided Fed holds interest rates steady – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html Accessed on 12 August 2026.

[7] “Traders see September rate hike as ECB mulls energy price spike – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/07/23/interest-rate-hike-iran-european-central-bank.html Accessed on 12 August 2026.

[8] “ECB hostage to oil prices? Lagarde leaves door open for a September hike – Euronews” https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/07/23/ecb-hostage-to-oil-prices-lagarde-leaves-door-open-for-a-september-hike Accessed on 12 August 2026.

[9] “FOMC Minutes, June 16-17, 2026 – Federal Reserve” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm Accessed on 12 August 2026.

[10] “EURUSD Chart – TradingView” https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/FX-EURUSD/ Accessed on 12 August 2026.

[11] “When Is the Next ECB Meeting? 2026 Rate Decision Schedule – Finance Calendar” https://www.financecalendar.com/ecb-rate-decisions/ Accessed on 12 August 2026.