[DAILY TRADING]: EUR/USD Analysis 21 August 2026 — EUR/USD Holds 1.1697, Near 3-Month High, ECB Hike Bets Firm

Right now, EUR/USD is doing something it hasn’t managed in three months: trading with a bit of swagger. As of the last completed 15-minute candle at 09:14 (Vantage platform time), this screenshot was captured at 11:20 (GMT+8) on 21 August 2026, and the pair sat at 1.16970, just under the three-month high near 1.168 struck earlier this week.¹ Here’s the EUR/USD news today: the EUR/USD chart, the forecast backdrop, and the levels traders are watching before Jackson Hole takes over the calendar.

EUR/USD Price Action: What Actually Happened

Thursday was a good session for Euro to USD bulls. EUR/USD rallied from around 1.1670 to a high near 1.1710 on 20 August 2026, before handing almost all of it back in a sharp pullback to the 1.1660 area, right where the 50-period moving average was waiting. From there the pair steadied, ground higher again, and rolled into Friday’s session at 1.16970.

That round trip is the kind of chop worth expecting heading into a week stacked with Federal Reserve and ECB headlines.

The EUR/USD News Driving the Dollar Lower

Here’s the twist: it wasn’t dovish Fed talk that pushed the US Dollar (USD) down this week. Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s 28-29 July meeting, released 19 August 2026, actually leaned hawkish; many participants judged that tightening could be needed if inflation didn’t ease, according to Kitco News.² Three regional Fed presidents, Lorie Logan, Beth Hammack and Neel Kashkari, had already dissented in favour of an immediate 25 basis point hike at that same meeting.³

So what actually moved the Dollar? Earlier that same Wednesday, the US Treasury said it would at least double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks, and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.8% to its lowest since 12 May.⁹ Minutes landed hours later that afternoon; the market’s reaction was reportedly muted next to the buyback surprise.¹⁰ Attention now shifts to the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium, running 27-29 August, where Warsh delivers his first keynote as Chair on 28 August.⁴

Why the Euro Side Looks Firm

On the EUR to USD side of the ledger, the European Central Bank (ECB) already hiked its deposit rate 25 basis points to 2.25% in June, its first increase since 2023.⁵ It held in July, but market pricing points to a further 25bp hike in September as close to fully priced.⁶ An unusual setup: a hawkish ECB against a Fed that has stepped back from forward guidance.

Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index data lands later today. The Eurozone composite is projected to ease to 51.6 from 52.0 in July, with German manufacturing forecast at 52.0, down from 52.2, according to an Orbex preview.⁷ Both stay above the 50.0 growth line.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Levels Traders Are Watching

The table below breaks down the Vantage EUR/USD chart used for this analysis, as of the 21 August 2026 cut-off.

Thursday’s 1.1710 high is the level being watched on the upside; the 1.1660 zone, home to both the pullback low and the 50-period average, is the one on the downside. This is the same information many traders scan when researching EUR/USD trading signals or running their own EUR/USD technical analysis, not a signal to act on.

The RSI reading, on the TradingView setup used for this analysis, sits above its own moving average and is edging toward the 70.00 overbought line, having swung between roughly 30 and 70 during Thursday’s whipsaw, a reminder of how much two-way action this pair packed into one session. Readers new to the indicator might find Vantage’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) guide useful, and anyone tracking the pair day to day can follow ongoing EURUSD News coverage.

What to Watch Next in EUR/USD Forecast Terms

The next scheduled catalysts:

• Flash PMIs, 21 August: Eurozone and US composite readings offer an early gauge on both economies heading into autumn.⁷
• Jackson Hole Symposium, 27-29 August: Warsh’s first keynote as Fed Chair, on 28 August, is the next big swing factor for rate pricing into the 15-16 September FOMC meeting.⁴
• ECB Meeting, September: A further 25bp hike is closely priced, adding a second item for Euro-side positioning.⁶

Readers tracking Dollar-sensitive markets may also want to watch Gold (XAUUSD), given its shared sensitivity to Fed pricing.

Risk Considerations

Volatility around scheduled events such as today’s flash PMIs, Jackson Hole and the ECB’s September meeting can produce rapid swings in EUR/USD and other major pairs. A Stop Loss order is one tool traders use to define in advance the point at which a position closes, helping manage exposure to sudden moves rather than reacting after the fact.

Leverage lets a trader control a larger position than their account balance alone would permit, and Vantage offers leverage of up to 1:1000 on eligible accounts. Leverage magnifies both potential outcomes, so it can affect an account balance as much on the downside as the upside, and position sizing is worth considering carefully in light of that.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

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References

[1] “Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate – EUR/USD” – Trading Economics https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/currency Accessed on 21 August 2026.

[2] “FOMC Minutes Show a Fed Growing Restless on Inflation as Warsh Floats Six-Meeting FOMC Schedule for 2027” – Kitco News https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-08-19/fomc-minutes-show-fed-growing-restless-inflation-warsh-floats-six-meeting Accessed on 21 August 2026.

[3] “Fed Officials Warned Rate Hikes May Be Needed if Inflation Stays High” – Axios https://www.axios.com/2026/08/19/fed-warsh-minutes-rates Accessed on 21 August 2026.

[4] “EUR/USD Hits 2-Month High Before Fed Minutes and Warsh’s Jackson Hole Debut” – Investing.com https://www.investing.com/analysis/eurusd-hits-2month-high-before-fed-minutes-and-warshs-jackson-hole-debut-200685918 Accessed on 21 August 2026.

[5] “Monetary Policy Decisions” – European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260611~4d41bd5e83.en.html Accessed on 21 August 2026.

[6] “Euro Area Interest Rate” – Trading Economics https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/interest-rate Accessed on 21 August 2026.

[7] “Global Flash PMIs to Set Rate Outlook (BOE, ECB, Fed)” – Orbex https://www.orbex.com/blog/en/2026/08/global-flash-pmis-to-set-rate-oulook-boe-ecb-fed Accessed on 21 August 2026.

[8] “Federal Reserve Board – Monetary Policy” – Federal Reserve https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm Accessed on 21 August 2026.

[9] “Dollar Tumbles as Treasury Buyback Unleashes Bond-Market Rally” – Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-19/dollar-tumbles-as-treasury-buyback-unleashes-bond-market-rally Accessed on 21 August 2026.

[10] “Fundies Cheat Sheet Update: August 19, 2026” – Babypips https://www.babypips.com/analysis/fundies-cheat-sheet-update-2026-08-19-treasury-buyback-dollar-drop-gold-bitcoin-breakout Accessed on 21 August 2026.