[DAILY TRADING]: AUD/USD Analysis 19 August 2026 — AUD/USD Falls to 0.7071 as RBA Flags More Rate Hikes

Every trader watching AUD/USD this week has two names on their radar: Andrew Hauser and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). As of 07:30 GMT (15:30 GMT+8) on 19 August 2026, AUD/USD traded at 0.7071 on the Vantage AUD/USD CFD feed, sitting just under its 200-period moving average after pulling back from Tuesday’s high near 0.7118. The short version of today’s AUDUSD forecast, or AUD to USD forecast if that’s how you search it: a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is fighting a soft US Dollar (USD), and neither side has won yet.

What’s Moving AUD/USD Today

The Australian Dollar (AUD) underperformed most major peers on Wednesday, a little awkward given RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser sounded anything but dovish.¹ Hauser said the central bank would have to raise interest rates again if upside inflation risks crystallise, naming the Middle East conflict, the global AI investment boom, and weak productivity as his top three worries.^2,3

It’s the same tune Hauser and Governor Michele Bullock have hummed all year. Three hikes already took the cash rate to 4.35%, and the Board held there for a second straight meeting on 11 August rather than declare victory early.⁴ RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent put it plainly in a recent speech: policy remains “somewhat restrictive.”⁵

Meanwhile the US Dollar has its own headache. Soft US data has traders trimming bets on near-term Federal Reserve action, which usually helps AUD/USD, except the RBA’s hawkishness hasn’t fully let that land. The FOMC minutes from July arrive at 18:00 GMT today, with Australian employment data following on Thursday.^1,6 Two catalysts, one currency pair, back to back.

Reading the AUD/USD Chart

On the 15-minute Vantage AUD/USD CFD chart, the pair opened at 0.70701, ranged between 0.70716 and 0.70694, and closed at 0.70710, essentially flat.⁷ That puts it below the 50-period moving average near 0.71003 and just under the 200-period average near 0.70777, a level it’s been dancing around since Tuesday’s break lower.

The Relative Strength Index (14, close) on the TradingView setup used for this analysis sits at 44.66, with its accompanying moving average at 40.11, both under the 50 midline after climbing back from an oversold dip near the low 20s on Tuesday. That’s consolidation, not conviction, in chart language.

Zoom out, though, and a longer timeframe tells a different story. FXStreet’s Wednesday AUDUSD Tradingview read described a constructive near-term bullish bias, with price above a rising 20-day EMA near 0.7045 and RSI at 57.6.¹ Same pair, same day, different story depending on the clock you’re reading it on.

AUD to USD Levels and What Traders Are Watching

FXStreet flagged the 20-day EMA at 0.7045 as where fresh buying interest could show up on a retreat, with the 17 August high at 0.7129 marked as the hurdle overhead.¹ On the shorter Vantage chart, 0.70777 has capped recent bounce attempts, while 0.70650 marks the floor tested since Tuesday’s peak. None of this is a recommendation, just the map traders are using today.

UOB Group has kept its “risk for AUD is on the upside” view since early August, reiterating it on 17 August with spot near 0.7080.⁸ Whether checking the AUD to USD conversion for a transfer or watching AUD/USD on a live chart, the drivers are identical: rate differentials and Dollar sentiment. However you type it, AUD USD, USD AUD, AUD v USD or AUD/USD, it’s the same AUDUSD chart and AUDUSD trend. For a fuller AUDUSD forecast or AUD/USD price forecast, the FOMC minutes matter more than any single level on the AUD to USD chart.

What to Watch Next

The FOMC minutes headline today’s calendar, with markets hunting clues on how split policymakers were in July.^1,6 Thursday’s jobs data follows fast, and either release could reshape the currency forecast AUD to USD for next week. Beyond that, it’s a tug-of-war between an RBA unwilling to rule out another hike and a Dollar that keeps finding reasons to wobble.

Risk Considerations

Volatility around today’s FOMC minutes and Thursday’s jobs data can move AUD/USD quickly. A Stop Loss order lets traders define an exit point in advance, managing exposure rather than reacting after the fact.

Leverage lets a trader control a larger position than their account balance alone would allow, and Vantage offers leverage of up to 1:1000 on eligible accounts. It magnifies outcomes both ways, so position sizing deserves real thought.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

References

[1] “AUD/USD Price Forecast: Rising 20-day EMA supports near-term bullish bias” – FXStreet https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-rising-20-day-ema-supports-near-term-bullish-bias-202608190653 Accessed on 19 August 2026.

[2] “RBA’s Hauser warns of rate hike if inflation risks crystallize” – Reuters, via 93.3 The Drive https://www.933thedrive.com/2026/08/18/rbas-hauser-warns-of-rate-hike-if-inflation-risks-crystallize/ Accessed on 19 August 2026.

[3] “RBA dep Gov Hauser says inflation is too high, monetary policy needs to bring it down” – investingLive https://investinglive.com/central-banks/rba-dep-gov-hauser-says-inflation-is-too-high-monetary-policy-needs-to-bring-it-down/ Accessed on 19 August 2026.

[4] “Interest rates on hold but RBA governor keeps door open to hikes” – ABC News https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-11/rba-interest-rates-august-2026/107023850 Accessed on 19 August 2026.

[5] “Australia Interest Rate” – Trading Economics https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/interest-rate Accessed on 19 August 2026.

[6] “Meeting Calendars and Information” – Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm Accessed on 19 August 2026.

[7] “AUD/USD” – Vantage AUD/USD CFD chart via TradingView, 15-minute timeframe, captured 19 August 2026.

[8] “AUD/USD Forecast, News and Analysis” – FXStreet https://www.fxstreet.com/currencies/audusd Accessed on 19 August 2026.