[DAILY TRADING] EUR/USD Analysis 20 August 2026 — EUR/USD Hits 1.1676, Best Since June, as Fed Minutes Disappoint

However you type it, EUR/USD, EURUSD, EUR USD, or eur to usd, the pair hit 1.1676 as of 14:41 (GMT+3) / 19:41 (GMT+8) on 20 August 2026, based on the Vantage EURUSD CFD chart used for this analysis, its best level since June 2026.⁵ It landed on a day when the Federal Reserve’s own minutes should, in theory, have done the US Dollar a favour. They did not. Here is the EUR/USD chart, the technical analysis behind it, and the calendar ahead, read as information rather than a EUR/USD price forecast or trading signals.

What the EUR/USD Chart Is Showing

On the 15-minute chart, EUR/USD spent late on 18 August and into the early hours of 19 August pinned under 1.1585, going nowhere fast. Then, from around mid-morning on 19 August, a sharp advance carried the pair through 1.1600 and up to a session high near 1.1685 by early afternoon. Since then, it has settled into a tighter 1.1660 to 1.1685 band, with the most recent full candle opening and closing near 1.1676.

The pair is trading above both its 50-period and 200-period moving averages on this timeframe, the shorter one sitting only a handful of pips below spot near 1.1672, the longer one further back near 1.1606, based on the TradingView setup used for this analysis. The Relative Strength Index touched the high 80s during the midday rally, properly overbought territory on this intraday chart, before cooling to 55.33, its signal line close behind at 56.29. Momentum has calmed; it has not disappeared.

What’s Behind the Move

Here’s the twist. EUR/USD’s advance has coincided with a broader retreat in the US Dollar Index, which eased to around 99.45 ahead of the Federal Reserve‘s minutes on 19 August, then extended those losses to around 98.90 once the minutes were published.^1,7 Those minutes covered the Fed’s 28-29 July meeting, a 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, with regional Fed presidents Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan all dissenting in favour of an immediate 25 basis point hike, according to Newsquawk’s preview of the release.^2,3

Minutes are backward-looking by design, and this set showed hawkish sentiment ran deeper than the three dissenters; several participants were reported as judging that tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline.⁷ Markets shrugged anyway, nudging the probability assigned to a September hold up to around 65%, from close to even odds a few weeks ago, according to Newsquawk.² A backward-looking document, competing with forward-looking data, and the data is winning.

The Euro side has its own tailwind. The Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index for the euro area rose to 51.9 in July from 50.0 in June, its strongest reading in months, according to Trading Economics.⁴ Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment index for August added to the picture at 34.2, against a 30.0 consensus and 26.3 prior, according to FXStreet.⁵ The European Central Bank has its own date circled too: its next rate decision lands on 9 September, with the ECB Watch Tool pricing a 90% to 94% probability of a 25 basis point hike to 2.50%, according to the same FXStreet report.⁵

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Levels Traders Are Watching

An FXStreet analysis published on 17 August 2026 framed resistance around the 200-day Simple Moving Average near 1.1630, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement just above it at 1.1645, and the 78.6% retracement at 1.1732 as the next broader reference band.⁶ EUR/USD has since traded straight through that 1.1630 area. On the downside, the nearest reference sits with the chart’s own 200-period moving average near 1.1606, based on the TradingView setup used for this analysis, with the round 1.1600 handle just beneath it.

These are levels traders are watching, not a EUR/USD price forecast and certainly not trading signals; read them alongside the 50- and 200-period levels from the intraday chart above. Vantage’s Academy piece on the Relative Strength Index is worth a look for how oscillators like this fit into the wider read, and the EUR/USD news tag keeps a running feed of how this story develops, alongside broader technical analysis coverage across markets.

What to Watch Next

The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium runs from 27 to 29 August 2026, with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh due to deliver his first keynote as Chair on Friday, 28 August; expect his words to be picked apart for any shift from the Fed’s recent aversion to forward guidance.^2,8 Flash PMI readings for the Eurozone and the US land beforehand, and the Dollar Index and other Dollar pairs, including USDJPY, are likely to stay glued to the same Fed headlines through the window. Vantage’s Forex News Today tag rounds up the wider currency picture as it develops.

Risk Considerations

Federal Reserve communications, this week’s minutes included, have a habit of moving price fast. A Stop Loss order is one tool traders use to define in advance the point at which a position closes, helping manage exposure to sudden moves instead of reacting to them after the fact.

Leverage lets a trader control a larger position than their account balance alone would allow, and Vantage offers up to 1:1000 on eligible accounts. It cuts both ways though, magnifying outcomes on the downside as much as the upside, so position sizing and general risk management are worth a proper look before Jackson Hole and the data that follows it.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

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References

[1] “United States Dollar Index Slumps in Countdown to FOMC Minutes” – FXStreet https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-slumps-in-countdown-to-fomc-minutes-202608190818 Accessed on 20 August 2026.

[2] “PREVIEW: FOMC Minutes due Wednesday 19th August, 2026 at 19:00BST/14:00EDT” – Newsquawk https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/preview-fomc-minutes-due-wednesday-19th-august-2026-at-1900bst1400edt Accessed on 20 August 2026.

[3] “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 28-29, 2026” – Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm Accessed on 20 August 2026.

[4] “Euro Area Composite PMI” – Trading Economics https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/composite-pmi Accessed on 20 August 2026.

[5] “EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gathers Strength above 1.1550, Bullish Outlook Remains Intact” – FXStreet https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-gathers-strength-above-11550-bullish-outlook-remains-intact-202608190520 Accessed on 20 August 2026.

[6] “EUR/USD Forecast: Holds above 1.1600 as Bulls Eye 200-day SMA” – FXStreet https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-conquers-11600-as-bulls-retain-control-above-100-sma-50-fibo-202608170858 Accessed on 20 August 2026.

[7] “Fed Minutes Expected to Shed Light on the Depth of FOMC Hawkish Split” – FXStreet https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-minutes-expected-to-shed-light-on-the-depth-of-fomc-hawkish-split-202608191400 Accessed on 20 August 2026.

[8] “About the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium” – Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/about-jackson-hole-economic-symposium/ Accessed on 20 August 2026.